How to Forecast Cash Flow on a Building Job

Profit is an opinion, cash is a fact

A construction business can be profitable on paper and still fail, because the money arrives after the costs. Labour is paid weekly, materials are paid on delivery or at 30 days, subcontractors expect to be paid monthly, and the client pays 30 to 60 days after a valuation that was itself measured at the end of the month.

That gap, between paying out and being paid, is the single most common reason good building businesses close. Understanding it is not accountancy, it is estimating: the cash position of a project is set by the payment terms, the programme and the retention, and all three are known before the first day on site.

The payment cycle, step by step

Most construction payment runs on a monthly cycle with fixed dates:

  1. Valuation date: the cut off for measuring work done, often the last day of the month
  2. Application: the contractor submits the valuation, usually within a few days
  3. Assessment: the client or certifier checks it and issues a certificate
  4. Payment notice: a statement of the sum considered due, within a set number of days
  5. Final date for payment: the payment period, commonly 30, 45 or 60 days from the assessment
  6. Payment: the money arrives, or a pay less notice explains why it does not

The detail varies by jurisdiction and by contract, and there are statutes in many countries that impose default periods and default interest when the contract is silent. What does not vary is the arithmetic: the gap between doing the work and being paid for it is 30 to 90 days, and it happens every month.

The sawtooth, and why the low point is the danger

Plot a project's cash position and it does not fall in a straight line. It drops through the month as labour and materials are paid, then jumps back up when the payment lands. That is the sawtooth.

The danger is the low point, not the average. A project with a 15,000 monthly cost and a 20,000 monthly payment looks comfortably profitable and still needs enough working capital to survive day 28 of every month.

On a twelve week job the pattern is sharper again. Costs are front loaded: setup, plant, materials and the first weeks of labour all happen before any valuation is meaningful. That is why deposits and stage payments exist, and why accepting a job with no deposit and 60 day terms is a financing decision rather than a sales decision.

Retention, and the money that comes back later

Retention is held from each payment, commonly 5 percent until practical completion, then reduced to 2.5 percent until the end of the defects period.

For a 100,000 project that is 5,000 held back, and on a business running several jobs simultaneously the total held can exceed a month of turnover. It is not lost, it is delayed, sometimes for a year.

Two practical responses. Include retention in the forecast from month one, so it is never mistaken for profit that is available to spend. And at practical completion, apply for the release immediately and in writing, with the certificate attached. Retention is released when it is asked for, and businesses that wait to be offered it wait a long time.

Materials on site and off site

Two legitimate ways to reduce the gap:

Materials on site: materials delivered and stored but not yet fixed can usually be included in a valuation, provided they are recorded and often provided they are protected and identifiable. That requires a schedule and photographs, which is a small administrative cost for a real cash benefit.

Materials off site: where the contract allows, materials stored at a supplier or a fabricator can be valued with evidence of payment and insurance. Contracts vary on this, and it is worth checking before the order is placed rather than after.

Stage payments, and the domestic client

Domestic work rarely runs on a monthly valuation. It runs on stages: deposit, first fix, plaster, second fix, completion. That structure suits both sides, because a homeowner can see what they are paying for.

Two rules keep it workable. The stages should match the work, not the calendar: a payment due when the plaster is complete is defensible, a payment due on the 15th is not. And the amounts should keep the contractor in funds without over collecting: a deposit that does not reflect the materials ordered is a deposit that leaves the contractor financing the order.

Where a domestic client will not pay a deposit, the honest answer is that the materials cannot be ordered. It is a way of losing a job that would have cost money every week it ran.

Late payment: the tools that exist

Most jurisdictions now give a statutory right to interest on late payment, and many give a right to suspend work after a notice period. Both are more effective as a stated position than as a threat, and both depend on having issued the right documents at the right time.

The sequence that works:

  1. Application submitted on time, with the correct documentation
  2. Invoice issued when the certificate or notice allows
  3. Reminder at the due date, in writing, referencing the contractual or statutory right to interest
  4. A notice of intention to suspend, where the contract or statute allows it
  5. Suspension, only with the correct notice, and only when the business can afford the consequence

The step that is skipped and should not be is the first one. A late or badly documented application is the most common cause of a late payment, and it hands the client a legitimate reason to wait.

Forecasting: the simple version that works

A cash flow forecast for a construction business does not need to be complicated. It needs to be weekly, and it needs two columns.

Then the only number worth staring at is the running balance. If the balance goes negative in week six, that is not a forecasting problem, it is a decision that needs making in week one: a shorter payment term, a deposit, a smaller programme, or an agreed facility with the bank.

The forecast is also the answer to the question every contractor asks in a busy period: can we take this job on. A profitable job that takes the balance negative at the wrong moment is a job that damages the business.

Pricing for cash, not just for margin

Two bids can carry the same margin and different cash profiles, and the difference is worth money.

A job with a mobilisation payment and monthly valuations at 30 days is a different business proposition from the same job with no deposit and 60 day terms. The second needs working capital that the first does not, and that capital has a cost even when it comes from the owner's pocket rather than a bank.

Three pricing decisions follow from this. Where the contract allows, offer a small discount for faster payment and price it against the true cost of funding the gap. Charge for extended terms when a client insists on them, openly, as a financing cost rather than hidden in the rates. And when comparing two opportunities, price the cash profile into the decision, not just the margin percentage.

A contractor who wins every job at 12 percent margin with 60 day terms and no deposit is on a path to a liquidity crisis that has nothing to do with how good the work is.

Suppliers and subcontractors are part of the same cycle

The payment cycle runs in both directions, and squeezing the upstream side is a false economy that shows up as unreliable delivery and unavailable trades.

Paying suppliers on time keeps credit accounts open, and credit accounts are working capital. A supplier who extends 30 days is lending money, and that lending stops the moment payments are late.

The same applies to subcontractors. A reliable electrician who is paid on the valuation date is a reliable electrician on the next job, and the availability of good trades is worth more over a year than the few days of interest saved by paying late.

A worked example

A twelve week extension, 60,000 contract sum, monthly valuations, 30 day payment terms, 5 percent retention.

At week 4 the cash position is minus 18,000. Without a deposit and without any facility, the job stops in week 5 for want of money, while being comfortably profitable.

That is the entire argument for deposits, stage payments and a bank facility, and it is arithmetic rather than opinion.

The three numbers to check every Friday

A business does not need a finance department to know where it stands. It needs three numbers, checked weekly, in the same order.

The bank balance, today, not last month. The certified but unpaid total, meaning money that is contractually due and not yet received, split by whether it is overdue. The committed outgoings for the next two weeks, meaning payroll, subcontractor invoices already received and materials due for delivery.

Those three answer the only question that matters on a Friday: does the money in the bank cover the next two weeks of commitments. On most healthy businesses it does. On the businesses that fail, the answer was no for several weeks before anybody looked.

Common errors

  1. Forecasting profit monthly instead of cash weekly
  2. No deposit on domestic work, so materials are financed by the contractor
  3. Retention excluded from the forecast
  4. Applications submitted late or without the required documentation
  5. Valuing work not built, then losing the credibility needed when it counts
  6. Taking on a job that goes cash negative at a moment the business cannot absorb
  7. Confusing a paid invoice with a certified valuation
  8. No written terms, so the payment period is whatever the client decides

Handover, snagging and the last five percent

The final payment is usually tied to completion, and completion is delayed by snagging more often than by construction. A list of forty minor items can hold up a payment for a month.

The practical fix is procedural rather than commercial. Walk the job with the client before you consider it complete, agree the snag list in writing, fix the items in a single visit with the right trades, and then ask for the completion certificate and the payment in the same conversation.

Two visits to fix snagging are normal. Five visits, spread over two months, is a cash flow problem wearing a different hat.

Frequently asked questions

What payment terms are normal? 30 days is common in domestic and small commercial work, 45 to 60 days in larger commercial contracts. Statutory defaults exist in many countries where the contract is silent.

Should I charge a deposit? On domestic work, yes, enough to cover the first materials order. On commercial work the equivalent is mobilisation payment.

What is retention? A percentage held from each payment, released in stages after practical completion and at the end of the defects period.

What is a pay less notice? A formal statement that the client intends to pay less than the sum applied for, with reasons and an amount. It has a deadline, and after it the applied sum becomes due.

Can I stop work for non payment? Often yes, but only with the notice the contract or statute requires, and with an understanding of the consequences for the programme and the relationship.

How much working capital does a contractor need? Enough to cover the costs of one month of work plus the retention held on all live projects. Most businesses that fail did not have it.

Forecast it in FRELUX

The FRELUX project tools build the valuation, apply retention, and project the payment dates against the cost curve, so the cash position of a job is visible before it becomes a problem.